About / Rarity Score
The FNDB Rarity Score
A 0–100 measure of how hard a cosmetic is to obtain today, recomputed daily from full item-shop history. It is an fndb.gg calculation — Epic publishes nothing like it, and it never claims to predict what Epic will do.
The formula
| Weight | Input | Saturates at |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Days since last shop appearance | 1,500 days |
| 25% | Appearance scarcity (1/√appearances) | 1 appearance |
| 15% | Age since first appearance | 7 years |
| 15% | Average gap between appearances | 400 days |
Time away dominates because that is what players mean by "rare": can't get it, haven't been able to for ages. Scarcity and cadence separate a one-off collab from a monthly regular at equal absence. Tiers: 85+ extremely rare, 70+ very rare, 55+ rare, 40+ occasional.
What's deliberately excluded
Battle pass and other never-returning items are not scored at all rather than scored 100. They are unobtainable, which is a different fact from rare — and mixing them buries the answer people come to a rarest-skins list for: which shop items almost never come back. Items with no shop history are likewise unscored rather than guessed.
Limits
- • The score describes history. It does not predict returns — nobody outside Epic can.
- • Appearance dates before August 2026 come from Epic's public data; from then on, from our own daily archive. The merge is exact but the upstream feed occasionally lags a few weeks, which the daily recompute corrects.
- • Popularity is not an input: we have no honest measure of how many players own an item, so it isn't pretended into the number.
5,004 cosmetics currently carry a score, recomputed 2026-09-19. See them ranked: skins, emotes, pickaxes.